They have constructed their team the way any mid-market fan boy would admire: through the farm system approach, having their farm system widely seen as the second-best one behind only the Devil Rays to begin the year. And the team is full of homegrown products, led by future perennial all star and rookie Troy Tulowitzki, who has a great bat (24 hrs, .291 ave, 57 walks) and gold glove defence to back it up. They also have long-time and very underrated Todd Helton, who has played for only the Rockies since he was 23 in 1997, and put up one of the quietest .928 OPS seasons ever. What's more is that this truly seems like destiny's team. The Red Sox are lauded for the miraculous 3-0 come back in the 2004 ALCS, but the Rockies have gone 21-1, including winning 13 of their last 14 regular season games against potential playoff teams, and becoming only the second team to go 7-0 to start the postseason ever (tied with the 1976 Reds). Whether the 9 day layoff will rest them up or make them cold (like the Tigers last year), we will see - it's too hard to predict - but the Rockies are definitely the hotter team right now.
Offensively, these teams are about even. The Red Sox scored 867 runs in the regular season, while the Rockies scored 860, both very good offensive totals. However, the Red Sox are going to be without their DH for 3 games of the series, and they are struggling with their own issue of whether to put in Youklis or Ortiz at 1b under the NL rules. It is a tough question, as Ortiz has a much better bat, but Youklis has been scorching hot this postseason (he's batting .500/.576/.929!!! in 28 at bats) and likely has better defence at 1b. The Red Sox and Rockies are also home to two of the most intriguing parks in baseball. The Rockies have an extreme hitters park, as the lower gravity and drier air causes balls to be hit farther; and the further fences ensures a more spacious outfield for hits to fall into (although recent humidors have dampened the effects). Questions have always been on Rockies hitters whether they are as good in other parks, as many of them have extreme home/road splits. As a team, the Rockies hit an .852 OPS at home this year, and a .731 OPS away (.121 diff), whereas the Red Sox hit a less extreme .844 OPS at home and .768 OPS away (.76 diff). What complicates things is the Red Sox enigmatic park: it is hitter friendly but suppresses homeruns. The green monster greatly reduces homeruns hit, but the short right field porch may increase them. As well, there are many nooks and crannies for balls to get caught in, and they can bounce off the green monster to increase the number of hits. It is going to be interesting to see how these teams adapt to playing in such different parks; but as a whole these are very close offences and an edge cannot really be given to either team.
The Rockies are faced with a similarly tough question on the pitching front. Bring back Aaron Cook, one of the Rockies better pitchers, but who hasn't pitched since August 10th, or stay with Franklin Morales, a highly regarded prospect and flame throwing lefty. Both could do well or implode, one is rusty and the other inexperienced. Personally, I think Morales is a better pitcher and has a better chance of being dominant, whereas you never know what you're going to get with a returning from injury pitcher. The match-ups should look something like this:
Beckett vs. Francis
Schilling vs. Jimenez
Matsuzaka vs. Morales/Cook
Wakefield vs. Fogg
Defensively, these are both good teams, with the Red Sox tallying 81 errors in the regular season, versus the Rockies record-breaking 68 errors (they set the ML record in fielding percentage with 0.98925%, edging out, ironically, the 2006 Red Sox with a 0.98910%). The Rockies and Red Sox both have good bullpens, led by relief aces Papelbon and Okajima, versus Fuentes and Corpas. But the starting pitching looks definitely in favour of the Red Sox. The team ERA's favours the Red Sox by 3.87 vs. 4.32, however, in a short 7 game series that seems to have less importance. Furthermore, aside from one of the game's most clutch pitchers in Josh Beckett, the difference is not as big as it initially appears with the following matchups - and the Rockies already pounded Beckett this year to the tune of 6 earned runs in 5 innings. Not to say that that will happen again, but all in all I think this series is going to go 7 games, and the Rockies are going to win it, becoming the 8th new team in 8 years to win a World Series. This is going to be an exciting series, with two evenly matched teams that have it all: speed, defence, offence and pitching.
4 comments:
Kudos on a great review of the upcoming series. I agree that offensively they are both great teams. I also think and hope that it will go 7 games. I don't believe it's good when one team sweeps the other, like when Boston swept the Cardinals. Not that I would complain if it was the Rockies, but baseball season only lasts so long, and when it comes down to the wire, I'd like it to last just a bit longer. I think the rest will be fine for Colorado. It isn't like the are just sitting on their asses. They are playing mock games and the pitchers are still throwing. It just sucks that we have to wait two more days.
Let's see, the Red Sox brought back Kevin Millar to throw out the first pitch. The Rockies would choose who exactly? Larry Walker, obviously, but then after him? Andrés Galarraga? Dante Bichette? Former Red Soxk and Rockie Ellis Burks? Maybe they could get Todd Helton.
This World Series is historic as it obliterates the record for most Mannys to have played in a World Series - three! When are we going to hear the first 'That's just Manny facing Manny' comment?
Over / under on Gagne appearances? I would say two, but that's only because I predict a lot of blow-outs.
Post a Comment