Shortstop Options in 2008

(featured on www.bluejayway.ca)

The Blue Jays failures in 2007 can be summed up to one aspect of the game: offence. While much of the offence can be blamed on injuries, teams have to prepare knowing that injuries are a part of the game and affect every team. While some people reflect on 2006 as being a great offensive year and what the “real” Blue Jays are like, I should point out that they still finished 7th in the AL in runs scored per game, and that was even with great years from Molina, Overbay, Glaus, Wells, Rios, Zaun, Hinske, Catalanatto, and even Hillenbrand. Everybody and their dog had a career year in 2006. Going into 2008, there is offensive potential at every position except for shortstop. John McDonald is a great defensive shortstop, but as a team the Jays had a .598 OPS out of the shortstop position, compared to an average OPS of .758 for starters (2006). That's a whopping difference of .160 OPS points. McDonald had a .612 OPS this year (and .595 career), which would slot in 3rd last amongst qualifiers (in 161st place, beating out Jason Kendall and Nick Punto). I’m as much a John McDonald fan as the next guy, but I don’t see this team making the playoffs with him as the starting shortstop. JP has said he’ll stand pat this winter, but I think he is bluffing, and is going to make a splashy move, which will most likely be an improvement at shortstop. So, with 2008 looking rosy as ever, with some great pitching and healthy hitting, let’s see what is available (* denotes free agent in 2008):

Top 10:

1) Tomohiro Nioka*: He is not technically a free agent until next year, but he could be posted and perhaps had for Akinori Iwamura money (around 3/$12 million), which is great for a shortstop. He hit .295/.346/.457 with 20 homers and 83 RBIs last year, and is 31 years old. As a basis of comparison, Iwamura hit .311/.389/.544 in his last year in Japan at 27, and ended up with a .770 OPS in his first year in the major leagues.

2) Alexei Ramirez: Ramirez is a 26 year old player from Cuba who also might be worth the risk financially. He went 6-16 in the WBC, has played in the Olympics, led his team with 20 homers last year, and is considered one of the top Cuban players around. For more information and a video, see: http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=597

3) Jack Wilson (trade): he might be the best option to get without paying too much in talent or money. He is still quite valuable as he had a .790 OPS this year (.690 career) with a .983 fielding percentage, edging out McDonald’s .982. The Pirates might be desperate to get that $14 million/2 year contract off their hands, but if they threw in some money, this would be an improvement.

4) Orlando Cabrera* (trade): of the next 3 big name possibilities, he is the most likely. There are tons of options for the Angels at SS/3B next year, from Brandon Wood, to Chone Figgins, Maicer Izturis, Erick Aybar, and Sean Rodriguez. Cabrera had a .742 OPS and a slick .983 fielding percentage last year, and is due about $9 million. Really, any of these players are trade options: Maicer Izturis is interesting, as he has a .724 careers OPS and has experience at 3b, a definite plus with Glaus’ creaky legs at 3b.

5) Rafael Furcal* (trade): also in his last year, and is due $13 million. His speed would go nicely at the top of the Blue Jays lineup. The prospect pushing him out, Chin-Lung Hu, might also be trade bait, as he won the MVP at the futures game and had an .871 OPS between AA and AAA this year as a 23 year old. We all know how reluctant the Dodgers are to play prospects. It would be a heist if some relievers could net Lu.

6) Edgar Renteria* (trade): he has a nice $11 million option in 2009, and with how shrewd the Braves are with prospects, I don’t see this as a viable trade possibility. They have Yunel Escobar that could take over, or could also be trade bait in a swap for one of the Jays young pitchers.

7) Felipe Lopez*: either him or Cristian Guzman* is a non-tender candidate, but Lopez’s bat has declined badly over the last two years, and he has poor defence. Angel Berroa* is in the same boat, as he may be released by the Royals, and despite hitting .300/.364/.433 in AAA this year, has a poor glove.

8) Ronny Cedeno (trade): he is known to have a great glove, and has had a .959 OPS last year in AAA, and a .921 OPS in AAA in 2005, but has been a disappointment at the ML level, and is thought to amount to a light-hitting shortstop. Only Ryan Theriot is blocking him and the Cubs may need him for their own shortstop problems.

9) Clint Barmes (trade): he is blocked in Colorado, mainly by Tulowitzki, Ian Stewart, and Kaz Matsui, but had a nice year in AAA (.815 OPS). It might not take a lot to get him in a trade but he’s a bit of a wild card.

10) Others: David Eckstein - he’ll be 33, and his bat has .100 OPS points over McDonald's, but his defence is slipping (20 errors this year), and he might not be worth the dollars he’ll command in free agency. Juan Uribe*, who will probably be retained by the White Sox for $5 million, is basically John McDonald plus 20 homers a year. And Jeff Keppinger of the Reds might not be a bad trade option, as the 27 year old has an .806 OPS at the major league level and .794 career minor league OPS. He played mostly 2b in the minors, but had a .989 fielding percentage at shortstop filling in for Alex Gonzalez.