The Vernon Wells Contract in Perspective

(featured on www.bluejayway.ca)

Torii Hunter just signed a deal worth 5 years and $90 million with the Angels. That’s an annual average value of $18 million. I was waiting to see how this deal turned out to compare what Wells would have cost the Jays. Hunter and Wells are relatively similar players. They are both very good defensive centre fielders and probably in the same bracket (remember, all those homerun stealing catches by Hunter is partly because the fence is low in his home park). Hunter averages about 25 homers a year, with 17 steals, 42 walks, 114 strikeouts, and a .271 average. Wells chimes in at 26 homers a year, with 11 steals, 47 walks, 91 strikeouts, and a .281 average. All in all, Wells is a slightly better hitter. Another thing to consider is that Wells is entering his age 29 season, whereas Hunter is entering his age 32 season, and younger players always get a higher premium. However, Hunter had a better walk year, whereas Wells struggled with an injury.

The Vernon Wells contract is much better than the Torii Hunter one. The Angels are paying Hunter through his age 36 year, whereas the Blue Jays are paying him only through his age 35 year. However, the key difference is that the Jays have Wells for 2 extra years closer to his prime. Now, considering Wells had such an awful year, perhaps he would have earned less. In this instance, Andruw Jones may be a good comparable because he had such an awful walk year as well. He is a bit older than Wells, but in the past has been a better hitter. We don’t know what sort of contract Jones will get, but the speculation is that it will be for $15 million per year (number of years unknown).

So, even by this criteria, at worst the Blue Jays are overspending by $3 million per year (or $21 million over the life of the contract), hardly a crippling amount. Yes, it’s true that it would be much better for the contract to be about 1 or 2 years less, as a player is more likely to decline by their mid-30’s, and Wells is being paid an awful lot by then. However, if the organization is smart, this obstacle will hardly be crippling, and they can field a competitive team around Wells just as the 2007 Rockies did around Todd Helton.

Tracy Ringolsby recently wrote an article (http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7469504) hammering the Jays for their lack of direction. First, Ringolsby is wrong in saying that the Jays are only an $80 million team, and not a $100 million one. Last year, they spent $90 million on payroll, and when you add up all of the money given out in arbitration, and include signing bonuses, the payroll will be right up against the $100 million mark (I have an estimated $95 million right now). Their willingness to spend money shows that they are trying. The division is formidable, so some owners would see no point in adding in the extra $40 million a year to at least try and win. Second, the Red Sox illustrate perfectly why the payroll disparity in the AL East is not the main reason why they won the World Series. Free agents JD Drew, Julio Lugo and Daisuke Matsuzaka were all disappointments. The real contributors mostly came from the farm system: Pedroia, Youklis, Bucholz, Papelbon, Ellsbury, Delcarmen, Lester, and the ability to trade for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell (Hanley Ramirez).

So, if the Jays are going to compete, they are going to need to draft well, and not just spend a lot of money. The Jays had a great draft this year, taking Cecil, Jackson, Ahrens, Arencibia, Eiland, and Tolisano. They also have Travis Snider waiting in the wings. The players from this years draft all project to be in the majors in 3-5 years, around when the Wells contract gets expensive. The Jays FO are clearly smartening up when it comes to the draft, and they are hoarding picks too. The mutual interest with Michael Barrett is a good example. The Jays rightfully don’t want to give up their first round pick just for him. (If they do, I’ll quickly agree with Ringolsby). J.P. Ricciardi can be baffling, but he does have strengths, such as at identifying quality major league talent (see: Burnett deal, not trading McGowan), and he deserves kudos for assembling one of the best pitching staffs in baseball last year. My guess is Ringolsby is just trying to earn his paycheque. Ricciardi is an above average GM, and his weakness is soon becoming a strength. It’s going to be hard to close the gaps between the Red Sox and Yankees, who are both rich and intelligently run. But luck is the residue of design and if the Jays continue to draft well, you never know what could happen.

The Un-reviewed

There are a couple of shows and movies that I have watched recently but have not reviewed.

The Wire


Slow-moving cop drama that forgoes the usual mindless violence and gets to the meat and potatoes, with politics, plot-turns, characters, and a bit of humour on the side.

30 Rock


The funniest show on TV since Arrested Development.

Arrested Development


The funniest show on TV.

Juno


A quirky comedy about an under-aged girl who gets pregnant, with many of the same actors as Arrested Development.

Lars and the Real Girl


An original take on the romantic comedy genre, where a socially withdrawn man starts to date a plastic woman, thinking she is real. The small-town plays along and dives into what it means to be loved in a relationship.

Let's Go to Prison


A silly comedy that probably got bad reviews elsewhere, but since it's my type of humour, with prison and Will Arnett, I found it enjoyable.

No Country for Old Men

No Country for Old Men is the Coen Brother's best film since The Big Lebowski (1998) and Fargo (1996). The story is an adaptation of a book by the same name by Cormac McCarthy. A drug deal has gone wrong near the U.S.-Mexico border in 1980. Llewelyn Moss (Josh Brolin) is a welder that stumbles upon the abandoned drug deal shoot out, and decides to take a large sum of cash ($2 million). But taking the money causes some people to hunt his trail, particularly Anton Chigurh (Javier Bardem). Moss occupies most of the story-line, but is not your typical American movie-hero. Instead, he is a Tragic hero, as he's likeable and not particularly evil, but he's greedy when he starts to protect his found money. Anton is a cold hard killer and at times uses coin-flips to decide whether to spare people's lives (unless of course you really inconvenience him). Chigurh is described at times as "just a psychopath" and the "ultimate bad-ass." He carries around a cattle gun, which normally shoots a rod at an animal's head to make it "lose consciousness"; but Chigurh uses it to break open locks and shoot people in the head. Bardem is a heavy-weight actor, staring in such films as The Sea Inside, where he plays a quadriplegic who fought for 28 years for euthanasia and the right to end his own life. Tommy Lee Jones' character (Sheriff Ed Tom Bell) was great, and anchored the movie morally. He also provided scenes that were subtly humourous, that evolved organically. The movie had no soundtrack, and was as minimalistic as the barren Texas landscapes that it featured. (spoilers) In the end, the movie is a tragedy. Chigurh is a completely unstoppable evil force, and ruthless too, as he kills the wife just for the sake of killing. Sheriff Bell's remarks cast a hopeless attitude on a modern cultural landscape that features violence and dishonesty. (spoilers end)

There is one more Western movie coming out at the end of the year that I want to see called There Will Be Blood, by P.T. Anderson. The genre is seemingly making a mini-resurgence, as all of the 2007 Westerns have been very good. Even though this movie is more a modern Western than a classic one, it exceeded 3:10 to Yuma and Jesse James in quality. In sum, the Coen Brother's are masters of their craft and exceed conventions on so many levels, that this movie is a must-see for movie-lovers.

American Gangster

American Gangster was about the real life story of Frank Lucas, a black man in the 60's and 70's who outdid the mafia by getting shipments of heroin straight from Southeast Asia and peddling it onto the streets of Harlem. On the other side is Richie Roberts, a good cop who attempts to take down both Frank Lucas, and the heavily crooked drug force working in New York at the time. The movie was fairly conventional, although it was well-made and well-acted. The ending was intriguing, but there was not much to dig beneath the surface, as the movie worked more as a biopic than a commentary. Taken together, American Gangster is a good movie, but not necessarily a must-see unless it particularly interests you.

A side-note is that today, I started watching The Wire, an unheralded but critically acclaimed HBO TV show that is entering it's final season. The show is a very slow developing crime drama based in inner-city Baltimore. Unlike American Gangster, the cops are a lot less resourced, and at times seemingly defeated, for a more realistic and humbling feel. It's not as easy as marching in to get the bad guys, since there is a lot more crime and politics than anyone bargained for.