What’s a good offer for Roy Halladay?

While no Blue Jays fan wants to see the team’s best player and leader traded for emotional reasons, we all want to eventually see a World Series winning team. The popularity of Roy Halladay, and his unbelievable talent make it very unlikely he will be traded. It is not often a smart idea to trade away a player that will anger the fan base (unless you are Billy Beane, who has traded away Rich Harden, Dan Haren, and Nick Swisher this year, in a series of gutsy moves). But with rumours of a new GM and President as a possibility in the off-season, you never know if the team will listen to offers.

First thing to consider is what the value is of the commodity you are selling. Halladay is signed for 2 years and $30 million for the next two years. When he walks he will net you two top draft picks as he will probably be a Type A free agent. I don’t think it’s fair to say Halladay is at the top of his value. Sure, he leads the AL in IP, has a 5:1 K:BB ratio, and has a sparkling 2.64 ERA. But he has the track record to suggest that he can still do this for several years to come, as he is only 31. He is also out of the injury nexus that is the 20’s for pitchers.

The best free agent pitchers on the market the next two years will be CC Sabathia, Ben Sheets, and in 2010 Rich Harden, Jon Lackey, and Erik Bedard. Many of these players will earn $18-20 million per year, and have blemishes, such as health issues (Sheets, Harden, Bedard), and some might be retained by their former team (Lackey). Needless to say, having a workhorse with the talent and reliability of Halladay at a decent price makes him quite valuable.

The other thing to consider is what the trade market has bore the last two years for pitchers with similar age, talent level, and contract situation. Surprisingly, 4 of the 6 trades seem to have gotten fair value or better.

Trades deemed as underselling

Harden and Gaudin for Gallagher, Murton, Patterson, and Donaldson. Harden obviously came with the injury discount, but with an option year, his immediate dominance of the NL, and Gaudin thrown in for a bunch of nice but not stellar prospects, the industry consensus was that this was a steal for the Cubs. Nevertheless, Billy Beane never looks at the battles, but at the war, and this trade was clearly part of a larger scheme to deconstruct, as he did well with his many other sell-off trades (Haren, Blanton).

Santana for Carlos Gomez, Guerra, Mulvey, and Humber. Santana may be the closest comparison to Halladay all things considered, except that he had 1 year left on his contract instead of 2. Many better packages were thrown around, but the Twins did not want to trade him to an AL East team (for Hughes and more, a much better talent than Gomez), and ended up panicking and taking less than he was worth. The silver lining is the Yankees won’t be hands down dominant with an ace like Santana on their team for years, and the Twins are still competing this year.

Trades deemed as fair or better

Joe Blanton for Adrian Cardenas, Outman, and Spencer. Blanton is an average innings eater, the kind that gets 10-12 million on the open market, and had a nice few cheap years left on his contract. But the A’s got centre piece Adrian Cardenas, who is one of the best 2b prospects in the minors (despite their logjam with Jemile Weeks, Eric Patterson, and Mark Ellis).

Sabathia for Laporta, Bryson, and Jackson. For half a year of Sabathia, and the two high picks they will net when he walks, the Indians got a legitimate 30-homerun bat in Laporta, who is close to the majors. Sabathia has dominated the NL and given good value to the Brewers, especially if they make damage in the playoffs. I would use this trade as a model, hoping to net 2 or more similar centerpieces, on account of the 2 years of contract time, versus half a year.

Bedard for Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Tillman, Mickolio, and Butler. Bedard also had 2 years on his contract left, and was a bit younger, a bit more injury prone, had a bit less of a track record, but can be just as talented. The prize in the deal was Adam Jones, who is hitting respectably for a good fielding CF as a rookie, a nice lefty reliever in Sherrill, and a few other non-impact prospects. Personally, I would rather have 2 blue chip prospects and a piece like Sherrill than a 5 for 1 deal with one blue chip prospect.

Haren (and Conor Robertson) for Carlos Gonzalez, Brett Anderson, Aaron Cunningham, Greg Smith, Dana Eveland, and Chris Carter. Dan Haren has pitched very well for the Diamondbacks, but Oakland did very well, getting 6 very interesting and potentially useful prospects.

What about teams that might be interested? One NL team and one AL team fit the mold as good trading partners.

Texas has some of the best hitting in baseball and the worst pitching. They might not think they are far off from contention, and fleshing out there very good farm system would be worth it. Jon Daniels has not been afraid to make aggressive moves in the past. Texas could offer pieces that the Jays need for the future, such as short stop Elvis Andrus, one of their catchers (Saltalamacchia, but the logjam includes Max Ramirez, Taylor Teagarden, and Gerald Laird), as well as pitchers Neftali Feliz and Eric Hurley. The Jays could certainly use a C and SS of the future, as well as more pitching.

The Rockies have a similar situation. Good hitting, poor pitching, and not too far away from contending. They are Doc’s hometown, but the prospects don’t match up as well for the Jays. Ian Stewart is currently blocked at 3b by Garrett Atkins, and he is hitting well in the majors, and trying out his hands at 2b. They also have five-tool and hot hitting Dexter Fowler (OF), and some struggling pitching prospects in Greg Reynolds and Franklin Morales, as well as some light hitting shortstop prospects (Hector Gomez, Chris Nelson). The package doesn’t really wow me.

So is trading Halladay the answer? Not necessarily. If the Jays did decide to rebuild, I would suggest being aggressive. There are some pieces to build around in Lind, Cecil, Snider, Hill, and Rios (as a CF). Shipping off some veterans would free up some salary room, and that money could be poured into signing international players and drafting.

I’ve written about this before, but the main piece to consider moving is Vernon Wells. He is hitting pretty respectably, with a .778 OPS, while the average ML centerfielder has a .753 OPS this year, and he still probably has a good defensive reputation. But in terms of production versus dollars, the future looks bleak for Wells. He’s due 5/107 starting in 2010, for an average of 21.4 million per year, and players tend to decline in their early to mid-30’s. Eating a large amount of money now may save a larger amount of salary in the future, and Rios could take over in CF, while the corner OF spots are not as hard to fill (especially with Lind and Snider). Since the contract is back loaded, if the Jays ate only $17 million after 2009, Wells would have 5/90 left, which is what Torii Hunter signed for this off-season at age 31 (and it means the Jays will have paid only 18 million a year, exactly what they signed him to). They may of course have to eat more than this, but the dollars could be spent on a more potent bat if you think that the close-to-the-majors prospects will be enough to compete with in a couple of years. If that is the case, then I’d argue for keeping Halladay, since there’s no sign of him decreasing in performance, and he might resign for 2 or 3 more years (and the Jays can afford him). The Jays currently have the best pitching in the AL, and if that offense could jump from 11th to around 6th, with a few bats (like a Jason Bay or Manny Ramirez), then winning could be possible while Halladay is still here. Now, if you think the Jays are 5-7 years away, that is a different story, and would require selling off Halladay and every other major piece on the roster for a longer-term overhaul.