Garza for Young: A Prospect Blockbuster

It's hard to say who got the better of the Delmon Young for Matt Garza trade right now. The Twins gave up the 5th best pitching prospect in baseball last year and a possible number 2 starter, a great defensive shortstop in Jason Bartlett, and power-pitching relief prospect Eduardo Morlan. The Rays gave up the best player in the deal – Delmon Young, who many scouts see as having unlimited potential - as well as role players Brendan Harris and Jason Pridie. Young was a number 1 overall pick who treaded water in the majors at 21, a resume you don’t want to give up on too quickly. It all basically breaks down as to whether Delmon Young breaks out into a superstar. He had discouraging plate discipline in 2007, with 127 k’s and only 26 walks, despite logging only 13 homeruns in 645 AB. However, he still had 38 doubles, and some of those will turn into homeruns. Scouts have always loved his quick bat speed, and I should reiterate that he is only 21. It may not be for a couple of years, but there’s no reason to think Delmon Young still won’t become a perennial All-star.

In the context of how each team improves, it’s still a fairly even trade. Both teams dealt from a position of strength to fill a weakness. The Twins had numerous young pitchers for the rotation without Garza, including Bonser, Baker, Slowey, Perkins, Liriano, and Swarzak, so selling high on Garza makes sense. In 2006, Baseball America said of Garza, “calling him a No. 2 starter behind Johan Santana almost seems conservative.” He had a good year in 2007, and obviously the pitching hungry Rays believe the same things that Baseball America does. However, they are downgrading their shortstop position, hoping that Harris, Alexi Casilla and Nick Punto can share time effectively between SS and 2b. The offense still looks weak up the middle (including CF) and 3b, but will obviously be helped if Delmon Young breaks out.

The Rays had an overloaded outfield, a bad pitching staff, and the league’s worst defense. The defense is helped by Jason Bartlett at shortstop, and the rotation is much deeper now: Kazmir, Garza, Shields, Sonnanstine, Niemann, Jackson, and Hammel. I still don’t see the Devil Rays competing next year. They lost 96 games, and the bullpen is still awful, even though it is fronted by Al Reyes, Dan Wheeler, and now Troy Percival. Their offense is not as strong as it looks: you can't rely on Baldelli because of injuries. B.J. Upton may regress offensively due to his ridiculous .393 BABIP (definition: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=babip), showing that he was getting lucky with hits, and whopping 154 strikeouts. However, he's still a good hitter, as his power, stolen bases, and walks were all good. Carlos Pena may be good next year, but not as good as his career year in 2007. As well, Bartlett, Josh Wilson (2b), and Dioner Navarro [C] don’t have great bats. Considering the long-term upside of Delmon Young, I would say that the Twins have the slight edge in this trade.

Jim Callis of Baseaball America is driving the 2010 Devil Rays World Series champion bandwagon. He also does not believe in the Jays at all. In a recent chat, he picked the Blue Jays as the worst AL East team over the next 10 years (that’s right, even worse than the Orioles, even though the Jays organization is run better in many ways over the Orioles). So will the Devil Rays be taking the traditional 3rd place reigns (or higher) in a few years? It’s an important question, because the Rays have been an arch nemesis to the Blue Jays, beating them when they needed wins the most, while the Red Sox and Yankees frequently posed as less a problem.

The future has several key prospects coming up. Evan Longoria (SS/3b) and Reid Brignac (SS) will presumably take the left side of the infield, while Iwamura moves to 2b, and Pena stays at 1b if he is still there. The rotation could have 5 number 1 or 2’s, with Kazmir, Garza, Shields, Wade Davis, Jake McGee, and David Price, which may be enough to put them over the top. But that is several years away, and not counting the attrition rate for prospects, especially pitchers. Prospects often take a long time to develop, and may not hit their stride until well past 2010. If their management is reluctant to start spending a lot of money in a poor market to keep players like Crawford and Kazmir, then all the pieces will never be there at once, and they will never reach their potential. All in all, the Rays have collected many top prospects from years of losing, but their future is so prospect-based that I’ll believe it when I see it.