The Vernon Wells Contract in Perspective

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Torii Hunter just signed a deal worth 5 years and $90 million with the Angels. That’s an annual average value of $18 million. I was waiting to see how this deal turned out to compare what Wells would have cost the Jays. Hunter and Wells are relatively similar players. They are both very good defensive centre fielders and probably in the same bracket (remember, all those homerun stealing catches by Hunter is partly because the fence is low in his home park). Hunter averages about 25 homers a year, with 17 steals, 42 walks, 114 strikeouts, and a .271 average. Wells chimes in at 26 homers a year, with 11 steals, 47 walks, 91 strikeouts, and a .281 average. All in all, Wells is a slightly better hitter. Another thing to consider is that Wells is entering his age 29 season, whereas Hunter is entering his age 32 season, and younger players always get a higher premium. However, Hunter had a better walk year, whereas Wells struggled with an injury.

The Vernon Wells contract is much better than the Torii Hunter one. The Angels are paying Hunter through his age 36 year, whereas the Blue Jays are paying him only through his age 35 year. However, the key difference is that the Jays have Wells for 2 extra years closer to his prime. Now, considering Wells had such an awful year, perhaps he would have earned less. In this instance, Andruw Jones may be a good comparable because he had such an awful walk year as well. He is a bit older than Wells, but in the past has been a better hitter. We don’t know what sort of contract Jones will get, but the speculation is that it will be for $15 million per year (number of years unknown).

So, even by this criteria, at worst the Blue Jays are overspending by $3 million per year (or $21 million over the life of the contract), hardly a crippling amount. Yes, it’s true that it would be much better for the contract to be about 1 or 2 years less, as a player is more likely to decline by their mid-30’s, and Wells is being paid an awful lot by then. However, if the organization is smart, this obstacle will hardly be crippling, and they can field a competitive team around Wells just as the 2007 Rockies did around Todd Helton.

Tracy Ringolsby recently wrote an article (http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7469504) hammering the Jays for their lack of direction. First, Ringolsby is wrong in saying that the Jays are only an $80 million team, and not a $100 million one. Last year, they spent $90 million on payroll, and when you add up all of the money given out in arbitration, and include signing bonuses, the payroll will be right up against the $100 million mark (I have an estimated $95 million right now). Their willingness to spend money shows that they are trying. The division is formidable, so some owners would see no point in adding in the extra $40 million a year to at least try and win. Second, the Red Sox illustrate perfectly why the payroll disparity in the AL East is not the main reason why they won the World Series. Free agents JD Drew, Julio Lugo and Daisuke Matsuzaka were all disappointments. The real contributors mostly came from the farm system: Pedroia, Youklis, Bucholz, Papelbon, Ellsbury, Delcarmen, Lester, and the ability to trade for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell (Hanley Ramirez).

So, if the Jays are going to compete, they are going to need to draft well, and not just spend a lot of money. The Jays had a great draft this year, taking Cecil, Jackson, Ahrens, Arencibia, Eiland, and Tolisano. They also have Travis Snider waiting in the wings. The players from this years draft all project to be in the majors in 3-5 years, around when the Wells contract gets expensive. The Jays FO are clearly smartening up when it comes to the draft, and they are hoarding picks too. The mutual interest with Michael Barrett is a good example. The Jays rightfully don’t want to give up their first round pick just for him. (If they do, I’ll quickly agree with Ringolsby). J.P. Ricciardi can be baffling, but he does have strengths, such as at identifying quality major league talent (see: Burnett deal, not trading McGowan), and he deserves kudos for assembling one of the best pitching staffs in baseball last year. My guess is Ringolsby is just trying to earn his paycheque. Ricciardi is an above average GM, and his weakness is soon becoming a strength. It’s going to be hard to close the gaps between the Red Sox and Yankees, who are both rich and intelligently run. But luck is the residue of design and if the Jays continue to draft well, you never know what could happen.